2011年4月12日火曜日

中国千万富翁有15%是职业股民 2004年开始炒股

中新网4月12日电 据中新网证券频道了解,胡润研究院和群邑智库于今日联合发布《群邑智库?2011胡润财富报告》。报告显示,中国千万富豪有15%是职业股民。他们拥有300万以上的自住房产,和50万的汽车。平均从2004年开始炒股。

报告显示,中国千万富豪主要可分为四种类型:企业主、"炒房者"、"职业股民"和"金领"。


其中,"职业股民"的千万富翁,这部分人群占15%,大约有15万人。拥有一定资金后,投资股票,并且获得相当高的收益。股票投资占其所有资产的60%。他们拥有300万以上的自住房产,和50万的汽车。平均从2004年开始炒股。

三大问题可能拖累中国经济增长

本周,当各国财长齐聚华盛顿参加国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund,简称:IMF)举办的一次会议时,全球经济正变得更加依赖中国。在过去的30年里,中国经济的年均增长率约为10%,在今年全球经济深受日本、中东和部分欧洲国家的动荡局势影响之际,这一速度着实引人注意。

世界银行(World Bank)首席经济学家林毅夫说,2000年至2009年,中国约占全球经济增长四分之一的份额,以微弱优势胜过美国,大幅领先剩下的其它国家,坐上了头把交椅。但中国能否继续保持优势并不确定。许多快速增长的国家都曾出现经济骤然停滞的现象。

以下是未来几年可能导致中国经济意外落马的三个问题:

房地产泡沫破裂:北京的一家咨询公司龙洲经讯(Dragonomics Research)称,过去两年内,中国最大的36个城市的房价已经飙升了约50%。中国百姓已成为房地产投机者,居民普遍认为房价会只涨不跌,就像 2007年前后的佛罗里达州和亚利桑那州一
样。与美国居民不同的是,除了投资房地产,中国居民并没有多少投资途径。中国的银行存款利率远远低于通胀率,股市又被认为受到操纵,政府也不允许居民进行境外投资。

大型国有企业也是投机大户。2008年末,中国政府下令国有银行增加贷款抗击全球经济衰退。据新加坡国立大学(National University of Singapore)经济学家邓永恒透露,其中许多贷款落到了国有制造
厂商的手中,后者纷纷将钱投入房地产市场。邓永恒发现,在中国的八大城市中,通过竞拍获得的土地价格在2009年翻了一番。

中国政府正试图通过提高按揭首付比例,引入房产税等措施挤出房地产泡沫。但这可能还不够。地方政府依赖土地出售收入维系日常运作,并借此伺机受贿。投资银行瑞银(UBS)说,从中期来看,中国想要避免地产泡沫破裂非常困难。所谓"中期"是指未来三到五年。但也有一些中国人估计泡沫会提前破裂。

中国问题专家拉迪(Nicholas Lardy)说,楼市崩溃可能会让中国经济增长放慢2.5个百分点,这比中国在全球金融危机之初遭遇的打击还要严重。

失衡的经济结构调整:通过在高速公路、机场、航运码头、矿山、钢铁厂等项目上的大规模投资,以及通过低工资和低估的人民币汇率帮助出口商,中国实现了飞速发展。不过,这一经济战略可能即将失去强劲的势头。尽管投资增至国内生产总值(GDP)的近50%,工作岗位的年增幅却只有1%。与此同时,由于欧洲和美国的需求减少,中国的出口业不太可能保持过去几年的速度。

中国领导人知道需要更多地专注于中国潜力巨大的国内市场。自2007年甚至更早,向内需经济的转型就一直是中国领导层宣扬的目标,不过政府取得的进展很少。

最近,中国领导层再次宣布将调整经济结构,这次他们承诺要提高工人收入、以便让工资的增长至少能与经济增长的速度同步。不过,他们却没有宣布更有利于消费者的具体政策。

北京大学金融学教授佩蒂斯(Michael Pettis)说,问题的规模非常大,因为中国在逐渐退出旧的增长模式之际,在新的增长模式上并没有取得很大的进展。

政治问题:中国领导层提出创建和谐社会,眼下却在压制受到中东示威活动影响的民主活动人士,尽管中国的街头抗议活动很少,甚至可以说是没有。

尽管中国民众对地方政府占用土地等滥用职权的现象非常不满,示威活动却是零星的,很少发展成为全国性的运动。有时,中国民众把北京视为可以打击地方腐败官员的一个盟友,而不是抗议的对象。

不过,政治动荡的爆发通常是出乎人们意料的。举例来讲,龙洲经讯董事总经理葛艺豪(Arthur
Kroeber)说,假如中国发生像日本一样的核危机,对中国政府来说将是一场灾难,因为中国核电站的建设很可能比日本质量要差,政府应对危机的能力更为有限。这可能造成公众对北京的强烈不满。

中国试图通过发展经济来避免政治问题。政府目前专注于遏制通胀的原因之一是,对高物价的不满曾引发过政治动荡。目前通货膨胀率为5%,同比上升了约一倍。

从墨菲定律看核电建设

自从日本福岛核电危机发生后,世界各国舆论都对核电的未来产生了疑问,绝大部分质疑都源自于核电安全问题。一些非政府组织极力要求本国政府缩短核电站使用期限或者关闭核电站 。很多国家纷纷推迟新核电站的建造,重新审视核电站的选址,
对现有核电站进行安全性检查。而我国也对核设施进行全面安全检查,暂停了新批核电项目。但对于今后我国要不要继续发展核 电站,大家还是议论纷纷,意见不一,至今还是争论不断。

有些人认为核泄漏危险太大,后果严重:面对核电泄漏危险的人群很大,直至全球范围,核污染影响甚至可以是延续一代人以上的。应该不再发展建设核电站。

而有些人则认为福岛核电危机有其特殊偶然性:首先,9级大地震,20米高的海啸非常罕见;其次,福岛第一核电站的6台反应堆都是最老的二代堆型,设计比较落后,遇到自然灾害的抵 御能力比较弱;最后,人祸难测,东电在核电安全方面所
做的努力非常有限地震后应对措施不当。而我国的核电站始终把安全放在第一位,设置了多个安全屏障。同时我国引进是当前世界最 为先进的第三代核电技术,安全更有保障,因此可以继续发展。

对此,笔者想起了墨菲定律。墨菲定律是西方世界常用的俚语,主要内容是:事情如果有变坏的可能,不管这种可能性有多小,它总会发生;甚至会引起最大可能的损失。而这个定律在 历史现实中已经多次证明了其厉害之处。

因此加强核电站安全设计防范虽然可以减少发生核泄漏之概率,但最终可能还是无法完全避免发生核泄漏问题的,甚至可能仍然会发生严重的核泄漏事故。

所以笔者认为,要不要继续发展核电站的关键,不仅在于其安全设计防范上,更在于我们有无足够能力对付核泄漏事故,及时封堵住核泄漏,减轻发生核泄漏之后果等等。比如核泄漏的 最大危害在于对人类健康安全的威胁上,那么如果我们
的医疗技术足够先进,能够有效地医治好辐射病,使人的健康生命不会因辐射而受到太大影响,那么我们还有必要过于害怕核泄漏,不 敢发展核电站吗?

总之对于核电发展问题,不但要重视核电站的安全设计防范,更需重视如何去对付好核泄漏。如果没有能力应付好核泄漏,减少核泄漏带来的危害,那么还是慎重一点为好,千万不要以 为加强核电站的安全设计防范后就可万事大吉了啊!

通胀加剧有利于股市的二八分化

因为2008年后各国不同程度地多印了钞票,尤其是最大的经济体美国至今还没有退出量化宽松货币政策,在欧、美、日经济还欠活跃的状态下,这些多印出来的钞票不少进入了中国和印度 、巴西等新兴经济体,因此,在未来的相当长时间里新兴
市场国家都将面临通胀压力。

这里重点要分析一下美元。因为当前美国的债务余额已经超过GDP的两倍,如何摆脱债务危机的困扰将是美国政府巨大的挑战,受此影响,美元难以强势,反之,持续贬值将是美元的常态。美 元的长期贬值对全球经济和金融影响巨大,首当其冲的就
是大宗商品,大投机家罗杰斯说"要买实物商品,不要持有随时可以印刷的纸币"可谓一语中的。在此背景下,包括金、银、铜在内 的贵金属,及粮食、石油、煤炭、铁矿石等初级产品的价格将逐渐走高也
将是常态。

加上诸多产油国的政治动荡,油价飚升,将带动全球大宗商品进入新的一轮牛市。

在此背景下,我国的通胀将持续恶化。年初很多经济学家认为通胀将在下半年好转,现在看来该判断已经过时了。

那么,通胀恶化对股市意味着什么?按照正常的逻辑,通胀加剧会使金融紧缩,因此,股市应该没戏。但过去的半年里我们已经加了几次息,上调了几次存款准备金率,而且信贷控制十分严 格,金融紧缩的力度空前,而股市不跌反涨,上海综指
悄悄地又爬上了3000点。之所以如此,原因有二:

其一,市场认为利率的上调空间已经不大,信贷紧缩也不会持久,因为很多企业已经感受到了资金的压力,企业的运行已经出现了下滑的迹象;

其二,在持续通胀的背景下,应该持有资产而不是货币。2003年以来,在流动性过剩的情况下,市场选择了住房作为投资的主要标的,事实表明,持有住房的人和持有货币的人在几年之后资 产出现很大差异。当前,住房已经限购,市场必然要寻找
新的投资标的。银行股的低估值符合投资者这一需要,煤炭、有色、石油等行业的资源储备丰富的上市公司股票同样符合市场的这一 需要。而这些行业对应的股票都是大盘蓝筹股。因此,通胀预期恶化有利于蓝筹股的
走强。

尤其在石油危机的阴影下,煤炭和石油价格的上涨预期强烈,国家已经出台政策对动力煤实行价格控制,不准涨价。但此举很难奏效。当国际市场煤价高于国内价格时,煤炭进口会大幅度减 少,国内煤炭供应必然紧张。我们每年要进口10%左右
的煤炭,约2亿吨,这个缺口都靠国内供给来弥补很难。

但通胀及由此引发的金融紧缩对中小板和创业板的上市公司有较大的打击。因为中小板和创业板大多数是工业制造业,在通胀背景下,成本上升过快使这些公司的利润减少。2010年的年报对 此已经初步进行了诠释:创业板公司的利润增长速度小于中小板
公司的利润增长速度,更小于蓝筹股的利润增长速度。

再者,金融紧缩使民间利率高企,使很多中小板和创业板的大小非选择减持股票,加剧了这些股票的抛压。

总之,当通胀恶化时,我们应该持有资源类的股票,远离中小板和创业板的股票。股市的二八分化还将继续。

要用寻根究底的方法去探讨中国经济问题

吴谢冈:中国金融体系的不合理意味着中国建造了垂死企业,导致巨大的生产力过剩。近些年来,中国财政政策上的反复无常导致过度建造,对铁、铝、水泥和其他原材料产生了巨大的需求 。日本人和现在的中国人看上去似乎会买下世界
上所有的东西,但是当你看到他们的财政状况的潜在问题时,你会发现一个黑洞。日本人在90年代陷入了这样一个黑洞,至今还在努力地爬出 来。中国人很多年后仍将会为目前这种无节制的狂热的购买行为感到心痛。

刘泰特评论:为什么说中国企业大量的是"垂死"的企业,因为这些消耗大量能源和铁、铜、铝、水泥等原材料的企业,是基于世界工厂的规划而匆忙建立的,而世界工厂是有赖于人民币低 估金融政策支撑的,而人民币低估、廉价劳动力政
策丑恶的真相最终会原形毕露的,就像泡沫会吹破的,我希望这一天早早的到来,来的越早,中国就越是少受损失。

日本去除经济泡沫情况比中国好很多很多,中国迟迟执迷不悟,而日本20年前就另辟发展蹊径。请阅读刘泰特文章《日本经济衰退的另一种解读》、《日本经济的泡沫和挤泡沫》、《日本地 震的遐想:文化、汇率等》、《日元升值是历史性
的国民工资倍增》。

吴先生文章中曾称道日本现代发展的极是,此处对日本近20年的发展肯定不足,彼此评论似乎矛盾。


吴谢冈:中国的银行是我们所知道的世界上最糟糕的银行(为了支持政府无限制的鼓吹泡沫经济而无节制地放贷)。

刘泰特评论:外国人奇怪,为什么中国的银行不断的为各级政府不负责任的投资坏账买单,而依然稳如泰山,而且越战越勇?

当然地球人都清楚,中国政府有钱,这个钱来自于政府垄断的铸币收入,而中国政府有恃无恐的利用这个特权去实现雄心勃勃的泡沫,是因为人民币有巨大的升值潜力,而牺牲掉这种潜力, 就能换取成倍增加的人民币的铸币收入。因此人民币对
外不升值(即提升"铸币"的含金量,福泽全体国民),却能创造人民币对内可以贬值的有利经济形势,轻松的实现政府的敛财之道, 政府获得天文数字的"铸币税",才能使政府财政资源绰绰有余,从容的应对不断膨
胀的公务人员的开支,当然为中国银行的坏账买单也不在话下。

中国的银行为什么无节制的放贷?因为有需求,为什么有源源不断的需求?因为地球人都知道中国劳动工资这么低,人民币就一定会因为外贸顺差而大幅升值,升值预期必然导致中国的通胀 预期,通胀预期必然刺激社会投资,恶性循环,资产泡沫越来越
大,银行贷款风险跟着也越来越大,这种风险大到始作俑者明知会爆炸但也不敢把它揭穿,只能眼睁睁的带着一丝侥幸,摸着 石头,听其自然,也是听天由命!

时下央行通过利率、准备金之类的货币政策来应对,如同杀牛拿错了用来杀鸡的剪刀。而这种后果,很可能是失控的通货膨胀和资产泡沫一起群魔乱舞,最后少不了摆平混乱的强权政府的登 场。

中国的银行无节制放贷,还因为利用人民币低估,创造了中国商品出口竞争能力的畸形优势,只要这种优势存在一天,中国外贸企业征战无尽的世界市场就仍然是任重道远,对贷款的需求就 仍然是多多益善,这种自残性的出口政策,一旦被纠
正,外贸企业的贷款坏账就成雪崩之势,对银行贷款无理性的需求,才被釜底抽薪。

口无遮拦的日本着名管理学家、经济评论家大前研一,2010年在他的《低智商社会:如何从智商衰退中跳脱出来》一书中,发表了评论中国的耸人听闻的宏论,他说:"一个国家的未来取决 于该国人的头脑,而头脑则取决于读书多少。在中国旅
行时我发现:城市遍街按摩店而书店寥寥无几,中国人均每天读书不足15分钟,人均阅读量只有日本的几十分之一。中国是典型的'低 智商社会',未来毫无希望成为发达国家。"

大前研一还曾出版《中国,岀租中》一书,认为中国是"租位子经济",中国经济快速成长全靠"租位子",他把中国比喻成一个超级大卖场,中国欢迎所有的国际企业来租个摊位卖产品, 而全球没有一个国家具有中国经营"租位子"买卖的
超级优势。

笔者认为,大前研一通俗易懂的一针见血,是寻根究底的抓住了本质,是国内所有精英经济学家远远不及的。

什么叫"租位子"?就是中国的发展依靠的是卖资源、卖环境、卖苦力。

中国发展的实质是什么?是没有文化的,是数量的,是靠压低价格的,一切价格都不计后果的竞相压低:从资源,到土地,到环境,到劳动力,最后万物归一:归结到人民币。

中国发展的悲剧可以用大前研一的"低智商社会"一词来一以贯之。中国人不喜欢读书,而这与把人作为廉价劳动工具的文化价值观是多么臭味相投!

滞胀风险上升 再平衡刻不容缓

中国人民银行刚刚将利率提高了25个基点。这是本轮紧缩周期的第四次加息,即便如此,中国的货币政策仍然表现欠佳。中国名义GDP以20%的年率增长,其中大部分是通货膨胀;负实际 利率的水平很高。利率提高25个基点很难起到实际作用。

通货膨胀正在进入危险的领域。很多商品和服务的消费价格正在以两位数的速度增长。通胀预期很高,并仍在上升。有迹象表明,通胀的恐慌正在蔓延。囤积现象已不时可见。当囤积成 为普遍现象时,就很可能爆发社会危机。

中国的利率至少应该提高3个百分点才能消除人们对于政府制造通胀的恐惧,而通胀是会耗散货币价值的。目前加息的幅度太小了,不足以平息这种恐惧。能够阻止一场全面危机到来的, 正是对人民币将会升值的信心。否则,资本外逃将会
猖獗,贬值也将成为可能。

——心理战无法治愈通胀。中国有许多人过于相信心理战的力量。通胀并不是一种心理现象,而是一种货币现象。通胀的原因是货币供应过多。要遏制通胀,就要保证经济增长所需要的 货币供应该与生产力相适应。否则的话,即使心理战成功了,造成一
种人民相信没有通胀的假象,这种影响力也不会持久。人民是不可能被一直愚弄的。事实上,心理战也可能适得其反。当 人民发现自己被愚弄了,他们可能就不会再相信任何事情了。即使通货膨胀确实冷
却之后,人们也不会相信。既然心理战不可行,这就要求用超调的从紧货币政策来消除人们的恐惧。


——行政权力也无法治愈通胀。对行政权力的崇拜在中国是很普遍的。当涉及到通胀战时,很多人认为,政府可以迫使企业和商人不涨价。在这方面,近来有很多案例。

迫使企业不涨价只能暂时起作用。当投入成本每年以20%-30%的速度增长时,不提价,就没有企业能生存。当政府施压要求企业不涨价时,企业就必须停产,或以不同的方式涨价,例如, 减少分量或以旧充新,都能起到涨价同样的效果。

无论政府有多么强大,都不可能强大得过市场。

对于国有企业,补贴可以暂时延缓价格上涨。例如,中国的火电厂几乎全部亏损。它们靠贷款填补亏损才能生存。这只是将通胀的负担转移到了银行。这种策略有很多副作用,比如说, 燃烧劣质或不脱硫的煤,成为日益普遍的现象。由此产生的污
染会导致公共健康危机。由此看来,即便行政方法能将通胀数字调低一点,这对国家来说是件好事吗?

信贷配给降低效率

信贷配给的副作用已经显现。很有私营企业根本无法获得贷款,只能转向灰色市场来获得融资,年利率通常在20%以上。很多企业,即使不是大多数,根本无法在如此高的融资成本下生存 。大多数这样的借款人都认为当前的形势只是暂时
的。然而,如果通胀持续,信贷紧缩保持不变,破产很快就会在私有部门蔓延。

中国的资本配置近年来越来越向国有企业倾斜。银行一直向很多表现不佳的国有企业贷款,就是因为这些企业是政府所有。香港和上海的股票市场很大程度上就是给国有企业融资。地方 政府通过土地转让以及征收房产购置税,也筹集了大
量资金。因此,政府支出作为GDP的一部分也增加了。

政府和国有企业两者的支出,可能已经占到了GDP总量的一半。这是迄今世界上最高的比例。欧洲的政府高收入是为了财富再分配,但在中国这部分支出很少。历史早已表明,政府或国企 的支出效率是低下的,现在的大量证据,仍在
表明政府和国有企业支出效率是极低的。面子工程在中国,就像雨后春笋般层出不穷。

低效率的副产品就是通胀。当钱被花在生产力低下的活动上,就不会有产品或服务来吸收资金。因此,就变成了通胀。信贷配给使得情况更加恶化。在公共部门继续浪费金钱,加剧通胀 的同时,效率较高的中小企业却正被饿死。中国的整体效
率水平可能正在下降。

滞胀风险在上升

资本效率的下降和持续的负实际利率导致滞胀。滞胀最终会导致货币贬值。没有任何新兴经济体能躲得过货币贬值之后的重大危机。

地方政府无法负担正的实际利率,他们的债务是收入的3倍,甚至5-10倍。他们的存活就寄希望于高价出售土地。正的实际利率可能会使土地价格泡沫破裂。因此,有一股强大的力量在维 持低利率。

国有企业情况也类似。尽管去年报告的利润达到了人民币2万亿元,国有企业的现金流仍然是负的。国有企业从来没有出现过正的现金流。近年来负现金流日趋严重。会计利润总是很难理 解,在中国更是加倍难以理解。当庞大的国有部门负现金流
如此严重,杠杆率如此之高,人们便会担心其财务状况。当利率变成正的,该部门的很多问题将会暴露出来。因此,国有企业希望 保持较低的利率水平。

这股力量就是借助信贷配给和负实际利率来起作用的。如果这种组合继续存在,滞胀将不可避免。如果滞胀是一个稳定平衡,很多人会喜欢它。它有效地抹掉了那些无偿还能力者的债务 。但是当债务人看到债务被削减,储户却看到了自己的存款
被清空了。人们不能指望储户不有所反应。因此滞胀从来都不是一个稳定的平衡。滞胀期间将不可避免地发生社会动荡。

对于新兴经济来说,严重的滞胀总是会导致货币贬值,并一定会触发金融危机。中国有着庞大的外汇储备和资本控制。贬值风险仍然很低。但是人们不能忽视这种风险。中国的货币供应 是外汇储备的4倍。并且,在官方体系外还有着巨大的信贷创造。例
如,信托行业正在有效地利用调整利率套现。它的风险取向以及资本不足的现状给金融稳定带来巨大风险。实际的货币供应 可能比显示出来的要多得多。一旦预期发生变化,对汇率的压力可能会非常巨大。

中国需要从信贷配给转向用利率来控制货币供应。每次加息至少应加倍至50个基点才可能向外界传达这种新方法的信号。利率水平应该尽快增加3个百分点。

为摆脱信贷配给,借贷利率应进一步放开。例如,借款利率围绕官方利率进行波动的范围应该进一步拓宽。目前,银行收取费用来增加有效借款利率。但这既不够透明,也不够有效率。

再平衡刻不容缓

失衡不再仅仅是一个宏观问题。它正在影响微观效率,反过来又导致了宏观的通货膨胀。

中国问题的根源是公共部门开支不断增长,且效率低下。在这个体系下,收入的增长集中于公共部门。随着公共资金的需求超过经济可以承担的程度,只有印钞票才能满足这种需求。

将资金转向公共部门的工具就是高税收和高房价。除非这两项都能降低,否则经济调整就只能是句空话。中国必须减税来传递经济增长新方式的信号。个人所得税的最高税率应尽快削减 到25%。增值税应减少到12%。

中国的增长模式对中产阶级的压迫尤其严重。一个成功的白领在工作了十年之后仍负担不起一线城市的一套普通房屋。没有任何一个别的国家的情况是这个样子的。抑制中产阶级的发展 不符合国家的利益,因为现代社会的社会稳定很大程
度上取决于中产阶级的满意度。

许多地方政府都推出了房价目标,似乎要限制价格上涨。但是,目前的房价人们就已经无法负担。当前的体系似乎已经无力解决人民的根本担忧和问题了。城市每平方米平均房价应低于 两个月的税后平均工资收入。按照国际标准这已经是
很高的房价水平了。这已经将城市建设从无到有的高投资成本纳入考虑范畴。当前的价格水平是这一标准的2到3倍。如此高价只能靠投机 需求才能维持。这也就是为什么在对多处房产或对非居民实行限购令后房地产销
售崩溃的原因。除非地方政府能够认识到这一现实,否则,中国经济很可能会硬着陆。

消除负的实际利率不仅仅是抑制通胀的需要,最重要的是要将增长模式从依靠政府支出和投机转向依靠家庭支出。如果存款者因为通胀而经受财产损失,他们就不太可能会成为强劲的消 费者。相反,为了挽回损失,他们可能会成为投机者,
这样一来,就会将经济推向通胀和投机的恶性。

中国的经济困难都是相互勾连的,无法分别解决。根本原因在于,政治经济使得公共支出成为了推动经济增长的主力。最根本的解决方案就是限制政府筹集资金的手段。限制通胀和泡沫 必须在这一前提下来考量。

目前的增长模式正在将经济推向滞胀,一个后果是货币贬值的风险。贬值可能引发美国那样的金融危机。中国的制度不够健全,难以在危机中保持稳定。因此,进行根本经济改革的迫切 性显而易见。

警惕美日“量化宽松”陷阱

2010年12月10日至11日,笔者到巴黎参加"重建布雷顿森林体系"委员会和法国政府联合召开的国际货币会议。辩论话题自然少不了美联储的量化宽松货币政策。纽约大学教授、号称成功预 测2008年金融危机的"末日博士"鲁比尼教授和其他几位
学者认为,美联储量化宽松政策的主要目的是迫使美元汇率走弱或贬值,希望借此刺激美国出口增长。理由很简单:美国反复要求人 民币大幅度快速升值,中国却坚持缓慢升值或不升值。无奈之下,美联储只好搞
量化宽松政策,让美元主动贬值或弱势,间接迫使人民币升值或强势。

进入2011年,量化宽松政策的始作俑者——日本遭遇了百年不遇的大地震、海啸、核泄漏三连环袭击,日本央行随之向金融市场注入55万亿日元,规模超过美联储量化宽松第二波。此举虽有 大地震灾害之缘故,但其实际效果或与美联储量化宽松如出
一辙,中国不可不防。

从全球汇率"博弈"角度来考察量化宽松货币政策,对中国尤其重要。2010年11月4日美联储重启量化宽松货币政策之后,人民币汇率一直持续单边升值,对许多中国出口企业造成巨大压力。 根据最新的统计观测,2010年圣诞节期间,由于人民币升值、原
材料涨价和劳动力成本上升,浙江温州地区出口订单下降幅度高达50%,我国总体出口形势日益严峻。


国家外管局外汇储备增幅和人民银行外汇占款数据清楚表明:量化宽松货币政策正在刺激国际投机热钱加速流向中国。包括中国银监会主席刘明康在内的许多主管部门负责人坦承:投机热钱 流入房地产市场和其他市场,是中国房地产价格持续上升
和通货膨胀预期恶化的重要推手。

一个最基本的判断是:量化宽松货币政策让我国经济增长的外部环境愈加恶化。主要表现是:(1)全球大宗商品价格高位运行和持续攀升,我国必将面临更加严峻的输入性通胀压力;(2) 美元长期走弱、美国和中国基准利率差距拉大,
进一步加剧人民币升值压力;(3)人民币升值压力和预期推动我国资产价格上涨预期,导致房地产调控政策无法达到预期效果(当然,这只是 房地产调控政策没有达到预期效果的原因之一);(4)我国对外部能源、原
材料和其他大宗商品的需求越来越大。量化宽松货币政策推动全球大宗商品价格持续上涨和维持高位,必然大幅度 增加中国经济增长的成本;(5)人民币升值和原材料、能源价格上涨,将削弱我
国出口竞争力,经济转型和失业压力加剧。

量化宽松货币政策对中国最主要的冲击,就是加剧人民币升值的预期和压力,而人民币单边升值预期的最主要危害,则是强化中国资产价格上涨的预期,从而导致资产价格的巨大泡沫,泡沫 破灭后则是金融危机和经济危机。

经济泡沫化的本质是什么呢?那就是收入分配的大幅度转移和集中,大幅度加剧收入分配两极分化和贫富差距,给中国社会埋下不稳定的严重后果。而工业化、城市化和现代化进程一旦被打 乱,中国将陷入所谓"拉美化"的困境。社
会将分化为富裕的极少数巨富群体和占人口绝大多数的城市贫民和"农民工";或者分为与国际资本有千丝万缕联系的精英群体和没有基本生活保 障的大多数赤贫群体。一旦陷入此一困境,中国社会就没有和谐可
言,社会将持续动荡,经济平稳增长和人民生活改善将无从谈起。

这才是我们思考人民币汇率战略和策略最基本和最重要的出发点。惟有站在这个高度,我们才能真正高瞻远瞩,认清美国压迫人民币汇率升值的本质,认清量化宽松政策对我国经济金融的真 正危害。

从我国长远发展战略角度思考,要应对量化宽松货币政策的冲击和减少美元本位制的危害,我国就必须积极推进以人民币国际化为核心的区域货币金融合作,最终实现人民币成为主要国际储 备货币,实现国际货币体系的多元化。人民币国际化是中国参与改革
和创建国际货币体系的惟一正确道路。国家主席胡锦涛率先提出"促进区域货币合作,构建多元化国际货币体系",是高 瞻远瞩的伟大战略思想。

三井住友银行(SMBC)市场分析师宇野大介称,如果周末的七国集团(G7)财长会议显示日本和其他G7国家在日圆的承诺上有所不同,美元/日圆可能进一步下跌至80日圆附近.
"日本希望继续对日圆的承诺,但是其他G7国家可能希望联合干预一次就好.如果情况是这样,可能测试80日圆."宇野大介是对美元最为悲观的分析师之一.
他并提到,今天日圆上涨的情形符合常见的型态:美元兑除日圆外的货币全面走软,随後日圆全面追涨.
美元/日圆JPY=目前报83.40日圆,日内下跌0.8%.

Nuclear Power in China

http://www.world-nuclear.org/info/inf63.html

                                 Mainland China has 13 nuclear power reactors in operation, more than 25 under construction, and more about to start construction soon. 

                                 Additional reactors are planned, including some of the world's most advanced, to give more than a ten-fold increase in nuclear capacity to at least 80 GWe by 2020, 200 GWe by 2030, and 400 GWe by 2050. 

                                 China is rapidly becoming self-sufficient in reactor design and construction, as well as other aspects of the fuel cycle. 

Most of mainland China's electricity is produced from fossil fuels (80% from coal, 2% from oil, 1% from gas in 2006) and hydropower (15%). Two large hydro projects are recent additions: Three Gorges of 18.2 GWe and Yellow River of 15.8 GWe. Rapid growth in demand has given rise to power shortages, and the reliance on fossil fuels has led to much air pollution. The economic loss due to pollution is put by the World Bank at almost 6% of GDP.1 

Domestic electricity production in 2009 was 3643 billion kWh, 6.0% higher than the 3450 billion kWh in 2008, which was 5.8% more than in 2007 (3260 billion kWh) and it is expected to rise to 3810 billion kWh in 2010a. Installed generating capacity had grown by the end of 2010 to 962 GWe, up 10.1% on the previous year's 874 GWe, which was 10.2% above the 2008 figure of 793 GWe2. At the end of 2010, fossil fuelled capacity (mostly coal) reached 707 GWe, hydro capacity was 213 GWe (up 16.6 GWe in the year), nuclear capacity was 10.8 GWe and wind capacity reached 31 GWe. Meanwhile, investment in electricity dropped 8.5% to CNY 705 billion ($107 billion) for the year. Capacity growth is expected to slow, reaching about 1600 GWe in 2020.

These capacity increase figures are all the more remarkable considering the forced retirement of small inefficient coal-fired plants: 26 GWe of these was closed in 2009 and 11 GWe in 2010, making 71 GWe closed since 2006, cutting annual coal consumption by about 82 million tonnes and annual carbon dioxide emissions by some 165 million tonnes. China is well advanced in developing and deploying supercritical and ultra-supercritical coal plants, as well as moving quickly to design and deploy technologies for integrated (coal) gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plants.

The grid system run by the State Grid Corporation of China (SGCC) and China Southern Power Grid Co (CSG) is sophisticated and rapidly growing, utilising ultra high voltage (1000 kV AC and 800 kV DC) transmission. By 2015 SGCC is investing CNY 500 billion ($75.5 billion) to extend the UHV grid to 40,000 km.  By 2020, the capacity of the UHV network is expected to be some 300 GW, which will function as the backbone of the whole system, having 400 GWe of clean energy sources connected, of which hydropower will account for 78 GW, and wind power from the north a further significant portion (wind capacity by 2020 is planned to be 100 GWe). Also by 2020, operational transmission losses are expected to be 5.7%, down from 6.6% in 2010. At the end of 2009, China had budgeted to spend $600 billion upgrading its grid.

Among the main listed generators, Huaneng Power produced 203.5 billion kWh from its domestic plants in 2009, 10.2% up on 2008. Datang Power produced 141.9 billion kWh, 12% up on 2008. Huadian Power produced 107.5 billion kWh, 6.75% above 2008. CPI Development produced 43.9 billion kWh, 2.0% above 2008 level.

While coal is the main energy source, most reserves are in the north or northwest and present an enormous logistical problem � nearly half the country's rail capacity is used in transporting coal. Because of the heavy reliance on old coal-fired plant, electricity generation accounts for much of the country's air pollution, which is a strong reason to increase nuclear share. China recently overtook the USA as the world's largest contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. The US Energy Information Administration predicts that China's share in global coal-related emissions will grow by 2.7% per year, from 4.9 billion tonnes in 2006 to 9.3 billion tonnes in 2030, some 52% of the projected world total. Total carbon dioxide emissions in China are projected to grow by 2.8% per year from 6.2 billion tonnes in 2006 to 11.7 billion tonnes in 2030 (or 28% of world total). In comparison, total US carbon dioxide emissions are projected to grow by 0.3% per year, from 5.9 billion tonnes in 2006 to 7.7 billion tonnes in 2030.3 

Electricity generation is only one part of China's rapid development; roads, air transport and a 40,000 km high-speed rail system by 2015 are others.  A record 486 km/h rail speed between Beijing and Shanghai was achieved in 2010, and the world's longest bridge - the 42 km Qingdao Haiwan bridge in Shandong province is being built.

Nuclear power

Nuclear power has an important role, especially in the coastal areas remote from the coalfields and where the economy is developing rapidly. Generally, nuclear plants can be built close to centres of demand, whereas suitable wind and hydro sites are remote from demand. Moves to build nuclear power commenced in 1970 and about 2005 the industry moved into a rapid development phase. Technology has been drawn from France, Canada and Russia, with local development based largely on the French element. The latest technology acquisition has been from the USA (via Westinghouse, owned by Japan's Toshiba) and France. The Westinghouse AP1000 is the main basis of technology development in the immediate future.

By around 2040, PWRs are expected to level off at 200 GWe and fast reactors progressively increase from 2020 to at least 200 GWe by 2050 and 1400 GWe by 2100.

Prior to 2008, the government had planned to increase nuclear generating capacity to 40 GWe by 2020 (out of a total 1000 GWe planned), with a further 18 GWe nuclear being under construction then. However, government targets for nuclear power have been increasing. As of June 2010, official installed nuclear capacity projections were 70-80 GWe by 2020, 200 GWe by 2030 and 400-500 GWe by 2050.  China Daily in January 2011 quoted a senior official projecting 86 GWe target in 2020.

Following the Fukushima accident in March 2011, the State Council, announced on March 16 that it would suspend approvals for new nuclear power stations and conduct comprehensive safety checks of all nuclear projects, including those under construction. About 34 reactors were already approved by the central government of which 26 were being built.  The Shidaowan HTR, though ready for first concrete, was also deferred. 

In September 2010, the China Daily reported that China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) alone plans to invest CNY 800 billion ($120 billion) into nuclear energy projects by 2020. Total investment in nuclear power plants, in which CNNC will hold controlling stakes, will reach CNY 500 billion ($75 billion) by 2015, resulting in 40 GWe on line, according to CNNC. In order to fund the company's expansion target, CNNC plans to list its subsidiary, CNNC Nuclear Power Co Ltd in 2011, to attract strategic investors.

Hong Kong gets much of its power from mainland China, in particular about 70% of the output from Daya Bay's 1888 MWe net nuclear capacity is sent there. The Hong Kong government plans to close down its coal-fired plants, and by 2020 to get 50% of its power from mainland nuclear, 40% from gas locally and 3% from renewables. Hong Kong utility China Light & Power has equity in CGNPC's Daya Bay and Yangjiang power plants, and may take equity in a further CGNPC nuclear plant.

In January 2011 a report from the State Council Research Office (SCRO), which makes independent policy recommendations to the State Council on strategic matters, was published. While approving the enormous progress made on many fronts, it cautioned concerning provincial and corporate enthusiasm for new nuclear power plants and said that the 2020 target should be restricted to 70 GWe of new plant actually operating so as to avoid placing undue demand on quality control issues in the supply chain. Another 30 GWe could be under construction. It emphasised that the priority needed to be resolutely on Generation-III technology, notably the AP1000 and derivatives. However, ambitious targets to deploy AP1000s with reduced foreign input had proved difficult, and as a result, more of the Generation-II CPR-1000 units are under construction or on order. Only China is building Gen-II units today in such large numbers, with 57 (53.14 GWe) on the books4.

SCRO said that reactors built today should operate for 50 or 60 years, meaning a large fleet of Gen-II units will still be in operation into the 2070s, when even Gen-III reactors would have given way to Generation-IV and perhaps even to commercial nuclear fusion. The country should be 'careful' concerning 'the volume of second generation units under construction... the scale should not be too large' to avoid any perception of being below international standards of safety in future, when most of the world's Gen-II reactors are retired. The SCRO noted the 100-fold increase in probabilistic safety brought by Gen-III, and that future generations would continue the trend.

Another factor potentially affecting safety is the nuclear power workforce. While staff can be technically trained in four to eight years, 'safety culture takes longer' at the operational level. This issue is magnified in the regulatory regime, where salaries are lower than in industry, and workforce numbers remain relatively low. SCRO said that most countries employ 30-40 regulatory staff per reactor in their fleet, but the National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) has only 1000 staff - a figure that must more than quadruple by 2020. The SCRO recommended that 'The NNSA should be an entity directly under the State Council Bureau, making it an independent regulatory body with authority.' It is currently under the China Atomic Energy Authority which plans new capacity and approves feasibility studies for new plants, although it is understood to report to the State Council directly.

The report said that 32 further reactors 34.86 GWe had been approved by the state at end 2010, with 25 (27.73 GWe) then under construction.

The SCRO calculated that nuclear development would require new investment of some CNY 1 trillion ($151 billion) by 2020, not counting those units being built now. These projects rely mainly on debt, funds are tight, and 'investment risks cannot be discounted'. This cost figure could rise if supply chain issues impact schedules, with repercussions for companies borrowing to build and for the economics of the Chinese nuclear program overall. A major recommendation was to sort out bottlenecks in the supply chain for AP1000 reactors.

 

Nuclear power reactors in mainland China 

Nuclear power reactors in mainland China 

Reactor technology 

China has set the following points as key elements of its nuclear energy policy:

                                 PWRs will be the mainstream but not sole reactor type.

                                 Nuclear fuel assemblies are fabricated and supplied indigenously.

                                 Domestic manufacturing of plant and equipment will be maximised, with self-reliance in design and project management.

                                 International cooperation is nevertheless encouraged.

The technology base for future reactors remains officially undefined, though two designs are currently predominant in construction plans: CPR-1000 and AP1000. Beyond them, high-temperature gas-cooled reactors and fast reactors appear to be the main priorities.

A major struggle between the established China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) pushing for indigenous technology and the small but well-connected State Nuclear Power Technology Corp (SNPTC) favouring imported technology was won by SNPTC about 2004. In particular, SNPTC proposes use of indigenized 1000+ MWe plants with advanced third-generation technology, arising from Westinghouse AP1000 designs at Sanmen and Haiyang (see section below on Embarking upon Generation III plants). Westinghouse has agreed to transfer technology to SNPTC over the first four AP1000 units so that SNPTC can build the following ones on its own.

In February 2006, the State Council announced that the large advanced PWR was one of two high priority projects for the next 15 years, depending on "Sino-foreign cooperation, in order to master international advanced technology on nuclear power and develop a Chinese third-generation large PWR".5 In September 2006, the head of the China Atomic Energy Authority said that he expected large numbers of third-generation PWR reactors derived from foreign technology to be built from about 2016, after experience is gained with the initial AP1000 units.

AP1000

The Westinghouse AP1000 is the main basis of China's move to Generation III technology, and involves a major technology transfer agreement. It is a 1250 MWe gross reactor with two coolant loops.  The first four AP1000 reactors are being built at Sanmen and Haiyang, for CNNC and CPI respectively. At least eight more at four sites are firmly planned after them, and about 30 more are proposed to follow.

The reactors are built from modules fabricated adjacent to each site. The timeline is 50 months from first concrete to fuel loading, then six months to grid connection for the first four units, with this expected to reduce significantly for the following units. The cost of the first four is expected to be less than $2000/kW, with this reducing to $1600 for further units. In October 2009, SNPTC and CNNC signed an agreement to co-develop and refine the AP1000 design. (See also section below onEmbarking upon Generation III plants

).

EPR

Two Areva EPR reactors are being built at Taishan, and at least two more are planned (see section below on Embarking upon Generation III plants). Areva says the reactors are 4590 MWt, with net power 1660 MWe.

In October 2008, Areva and CGNPC announced establishment of an engineering joint venture as a technology transfer vehicle for development EPR and other PWR plants in China and later abroad. The JV will be held 55% by CGNPC and other Chinese interests, and 45% by Areva. It will engineer and procure equipment for both the EPR and the CPR-1000.

CAP1400

Westinghouse announced in 2008 that it was working with SNPTC and Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research & Design Institute (SNERDI) to develop jointly a passively safe 1400 MWe design from the AP1000, for large-scale deployment. This development with SNERDI opens the possibility of China itself exporting the new larger units with Westinghouse's cooperation.

In December 2009, the State Nuclear Demonstration Company � a 55-45% joint venture company by SNPTC and China Huaneng Group � was set up to build and operate an initial unit of the larger design, the CAP1400, at Huaneng's Shidaowan site. The new company signed a set of agreements with SNERDI and the State Nuclear Power Engineering Company (SNPEC) in November 2010 to proceed with the project. Construction is scheduled to start in April 2013, and SNPTC hoped to have it operating in December 2017. Westinghouse is to provide technical consulting services to SNPTC for the design. It may be followed by a larger, 3-loop CAP2100 design if the passive cooling system can be scaled to that level. Agreements with Westinghouse stipulate that SNPTC will own the intellectual property rights for any derivatives over 1350 MWe. SNPEC is doing the engineering under a team from SNERDI, the Shandong Electric Power Engineering Consulting Institute (SEPECI), and the State Nuclear Power Equipment Manufacturing Company (SNPEMC), which will make the components.

CNP-1000 (also CNP-600, CNP-300)

CNNC had been working with Westinghouse and Framatome (now Areva) at SNERDI since the early 1990s to develop a Chinese standard three-loop PWR design, the CNP-1000. This is developed from the single-loop Qinshan CNP-300 unit (scaled up to the two-loop CNP-600 units, also at Qinshan), with high (60 GWd/t) burn-up, 18-month refueling cycle and 20 more fuel assemblies than the French-origin unitsb. In 1997, the Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC) at Chengdu became involved in the reactor design and, early in 2007, SNERDI was reassigned to concentrate on the AP1000 program. CNNC has been keen to create its own brand of advanced second-generation reactor with full intellectual property rights, and wanted to build two initial CNP-1000 plants at Fangjiashan, adjacent to Qinshan near Shanghai, under the 11th Economic Plan, though the design probably would not have been ready. In early 2007, the CNP-1000 development was put on hold indefinitely, though this aborted export plans for two CNP-1000 units to Pakistan.

Further CNP-600 units are being built at Qinshan and Changjiang, Hainan. CNNC says they are free of French intellectual property rights. CNNC is also developing the design to the ACP600 which it expects to be able to built on Hainan or in the northwest Gansu province about 2013c.

A new 300 MWe CNP-300 PWR unit is being built at Chasma in Pakistan by the China Zhongyuan Engineering Corporation. It is a twin to that already commissioned in 2000, and similar to Qinshan 1 � China's first indigenously-designed (by SNERDI) nuclear power plant.

CNNC is seeking to sell the CNP-300 to Belarus and in Africa.

CPR-1000

The CPR-1000 is a significantly upgraded version of the 900 MWe-class French three-loop technology imported for the Daya Bay nuclear power plant in the 1980s. Known as the 'improved Chinese PWR' and designated Generation II+, it features digital instrumentation and control and a design life of 60 years. Its 157 fuel assemblies have core melt frequency of 1x10-5and a release probability an order of magnitude lower than this.

Standard construction time is 52 months, and the unit cost is under CNY 10,000 (US$ 1500) per kilowatt. With a capacity of 1080 MWe gross (1037 MWe net), Ling Ao Phase II is the first plant to be designated as the CPR-1000 design. The CPR-1000 is being widely and quickly deployed for domestic use.

China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation (CGNPC) led the development of the CPR-1000 and has established a nearly complete domestic supply chain. However, Areva retains intellectual property rights, which constrains overseas sales since the Chinese would need agreement from Areva on a case-by-case basis.

CGNPC refers to later units as CPR-1000+, incorporating design improvements which bring it close to Generation III standard. Of more significance is its evolution to the ACPR-1000 with full Chinese intellectual property rights and which CGNPC expects to make available for local build and overseas markets from 2013.

CGNPC Progressive Localisation of CPR-1000 

VVER

Russia's Atomstroyexport was general contractor and equipment provider for the Tianwan AES-91 power plants using the V-428 version of the well-proven VVER-1000 reactor of 1060 MWe capacity. The reactors incorporate Finnish safety features and Siemens-Areva instrumentation and control systems. Russia's Energoatom is responsible for maintenance from 2009. Tianwan units 3 & 4 will use the same version of the VVER-1000 reactor, and if CNNC continues with Russian technology for units 5 & 6, they will probably use the VVER-1200.

Candu

In September 2005, Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd (AECL) signed a technology development agreement with CNNC which opened the possibility of it supplying further Candu-6 reactors. AECL built the two-unit Qinshan Phase III plant on schedule and under budget and estimates that it could be replicated for 25% lower cost. Any replication would be on the basis of involving local engineering teams, not on a turnkey basis, but the technology is now well understood and the decades-old Candu-6 design would likely pose fewer problems for technology transfer than state of the art third-generation designs from Westinghouse and Areva NP. (The later Korean Candu-6 plants at Wolsong had 75% local content.) However, the agreement with CNNC � more specifically with SNERDI � looked further forward to collaboration on AECL's new ACR design later. SNERDI is now focused on AP1000 engineering and reassigned to SNPTC, so early in 2008 work on Candu fuel technologies passed to another CNNC entity: the Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC).

HTR

In February 2006, the State Council announced that the small high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR) was the second of two high priority projects for the next 15 years. The small HTR-PM units with pebble bed fuel were to be 200 MWe reactors, similar to that being developed in South Africa, but plans have evolved to make them twin 105 MWe reactors so that they can retain the same core configuration as the prototype HTR-10. The twin units will drive a single steam turbine. China Huaneng Group is the lead organization in the consortium to build the demonstration Shidaowan HTR-PM with China Nuclear Engineering & Construction Group (CNEC) and Tsinghua University's INET, which is the R&D leader. Chinergy Co., a joint venture of Tsinghua and CNEC, is the main contractor for the nuclear island. Thermal efficiency of 40%, localisation 75% and 50-month construction for the first unit is envisaged. The initial HTR-PM will pave the way for 18 (3x6) further 210 MWe units at the same site � total 3800 MWe (see Shidaowan project below, and Research and development section in page on China's Nuclear Fuel Cycle).

Fast neutron reactor

Longer-term, fast neutron reactors (FNRs) are seen as the main technology, and CNNC expects the FNR to become predominant by mid-century. A 65 MWt fast neutron reactor � the Chinese Experimental Fast Reactor (CEFR) � near Beijing achieved criticality in July 2010.6 Based on this, a 600 MWe pre-conceptual design was developed. The current plan is to develop an indigenous 1000 MWe design to begin construction in 2017, and commissioning 2022. This is known as the Chinese Demonstration Fast Reactor (CDFR) project 1.

In addition to CDFR project 1, in October 2009, an agreement with Russia confirmed earlier indications that China would opt for the BN-800 technology as CDFR project 2. The 880 MWe gross BN-800 reactor being built by OKBM Afrikantov at Beloyarsk in Siberia is the reference design and the first two in China are planned to start construction in 2013 at Sanming, Fujian province, with the first to be in operation in 2018 (see see section below on Sanming).

See also Fast neutron reactors section in page on China's Nuclear Fuel Cycle.

Embarking upon Generation III plants 

In September 2004, the State Council approved plans for two units at Sanmen, followed by six units at Yangjiang (two to start with), these to be 1000 or 1500 MWe reactors pioneering Generation III nuclear technology from overseas. The Sanmen (in Zhejiang province) and Yangjiang (in Guangdong province) reactors were subject to an open bidding process for third-generation designs, with contracts to be awarded in mid-2006 � in the event, mid-2007 � putting them clearly into the 11th Five Year Plan.

Bidding process

This open bidding process underlined the extent to which China is making itself part of the world nuclear industry, and yet at first remaining somewhat ambivalent about that.

Three bids were received for the four Sanmen and Yangjiang reactors: from Westinghouse (AP1000 reactors), Areva (EPR) and Atomstroyexport (VVER-1000 model V-392). The State Nuclear Power Technology Corporation (SNPTC), directly under China's State Council, was in charge of technology selection for new plants being bid from overseas.

The USA, French and Russian governments were reported to be giving firm support as finance and support arrangements were put in place. The US Export-Import bank approved $5 billion in loan guarantees for the Westinghouse bid, and the French Coface company was expected similarly to finance Areva for its bid. The US Nuclear Regulatory Commission gave approval for Westinghouse to export equipment and engineering services as well as the initial fuel load and one replacement for the four units. Bids for both two-unit plants were received in Beijing on behalf of the two customers: China Guangdong Nuclear Power Co (CGNPC) for Yangjiang, and China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) for Sanmen. Bids were for the nuclear portion of each plant only, the turbine tenders to be called for subsequently.

Bids were assessed on level of technology, the degree to which it was proven, price, local content, and technology transfer - which apparently became the major factor. Areva and Westinghouse were short-listed. However, the decision on reactor type was delayed, and came under review at the highest political level, with CNNC evidently pushing for the use of indigenous second-generation designs for both sites.

In December 2006, 22 months after the bids were submitted and after several revisions to them, the Westinghouse AP1000 reactor design was selected for the four units � two each at Sanmen and Yangjiang. Early in 2007, the two units planned for the Yangjiang site were switched to Haiyang in the more northerly Shandong province, making way for two EPR units Areva was in negotiations to build at Yangjiang. Later in 2007, plans for the EPRs under consideration for Yangjiang were transferred to another Guangdong site � Taishan � since there was pressure to build a lot of capacity quickly at Yangjiang.

Sanmen 1&2 and Haiyang 1&2

A framework agreement was signed at the end of February 2007 between Westinghouse and SNPTC specifying Haiyang and Sanmen for the four AP1000 units. In July 2007, Westinghouse, along with consortium partner Shaw, signed the contracts with SNPTC, Sanmen Nuclear Power Company (51% owned by CNNC), Shangdong Nuclear Power Company (61% owned by CPI) and China National Technical Import & Export Corporation (CNTIC) for four AP1000 reactors. Specific terms were not disclosed but the figure of $5.3 billion for the first two was widely quoted.

Sanmen site works commenced in February 2008 and full construction on Sanmen 1 � the world's first AP1000 unit � officially commenced on 19 April 2009. The reactor is expected to begin operation in August 2013 with the second about one year later. First concrete at Haiyang 1 was in September 2009. The Haiyang units are expected to commence operation in 2014 and 2015.

AP1000 construction and equipment contracts

Westinghouse and Shaw Group have an engineering, procurement, commissioning and start-up as well as project management contract with SNPTC for the first four reactors (Sanmen & Haiyang). Also Shaw has a contract with State Nuclear Power Engineering Corp. Ltd, a SNPTC subsidiary, for technical support for the first two Dafan, Xianning units in Hubei province, including engineering and design management, project controls, quality assurance, construction management and project management.

In April 2007, Westinghouse signed a $350 million contract with Doosan Heavy Industries in Korea for two pressure vessels and four steam generators for Sanmen 1 and Haiyang 1. The pressure vessels for the other two units are being made by Chinese manufacturers: China First Heavy Industries (CFHI, also known as YiZhong) for Sanmen 2 and Shanghai Electric Group Corporation (SEC) for Haiyang 2. Steam generators for Sanmen 2 and Haiyang 2 were to be manufactured by Harbin Power Equipment Co., Ltd. (HPEC) and SEC, respectively, though a contract for Sanmen 2 steam generators was let to Spain's ENSA in 2011.

All four steam turbine generators are being manufactured by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI). In a $521 million deal, Sanmen Nuclear Power ordered two turbine generator packages from MHI at the end of September 2007, with Shandong Nuclear Power ordering another two early in 2008. MHI's Takasago Machinery Works is manufacturing the turbines, including rotors and blades. Mitsubishi Electric Corporation is supplying the generators and HPEC, partnering with MHI, is responsible for turbine casings, piping and associated facilities. The turbines will reportedly boost the capacity of the reactors from their designed 1175 MWe to 1250 MWe gross.

In November 2010, further contracts were signed between SNPTC and Westinghouse, including one for Westinghouse to provide SNPTC with technical consulting services in research and development of the CAP1400 nuclear power plant, to be developed by SNPTC with Chinese intellectual property rights. Westinghouse said that having shared design technology with SNERDI, it expected 100% localization by 2015.

In January 2011, a further agreement was signed with SNPTC to deploy further AP1000 units, and to extend the 2008 technology cooperation agreement for another two years. SNPTC said the deal also included measures "to develop cooperation in the field of overseas markets." Another agreement was signed with China Baotou Nuclear Fuel Co "to design, manufacture and install fuel fabrication equipment that will enable China to manufacture fuel" for AP1000 units. The latter $35 million contract involves supply and installation of US equipment at Baotou.

Taishan 1&2

In February 2007, EDF entered a cooperation agreement with CGNPC to build and operate a two-unit EPR power station at Yangjiang in Guangdong province. This deal was not expected to involve the technology transfer which is central to the Westinghouse contracts, since the EPR has multiple redundant safety systems rather than passive safety systems and is seen to be more complex and expensive, hence of less long-term interest to China. However, negotiations with Areva and EDF dragged on and in August 2007 it was announced that the EPR project had been shuffled to Taishan (in Guangdong) so that six CPR-1000 units previously planned for that site could be built at Yangjiang as soon as possible.

At a November 2007 ceremony attended by Chinese president Hu Jintao and French president Nicolas Sarkozy in Beijing's Great Hall of the People, Areva initialed an � billion contract with CGNPC for the two EPRs at Taishan plus supply of fuel to 2026 and other materials and services for them. The whole project, including fuel supply, totals � billion, of which the nuclear reactors themselves were reported to be about �.5 billion. Steam turbine generators costing �00 million are included in the larger sum. The Guangdong Development Commission quotes the total investment in both units as CNY 49.85 billion ($7.3 billion). The joint venture partners will put up CNY 16.45 billion and the balance will be borrowed with guarantee from the Central Bank of France. French export credits for the project are reported as �.7 billion ($2.4 billion), covering purchase of equipment such as pressure vessel and steam generators for unit 1 from French suppliers.

In August 2008, EDF and CGNPC signed the final agreements for the creation of Guangdong Taishan Nuclear Power Joint Venture Company Limited (TNPC). EDF will hold 30% of TNPC for a period of 50 years (the maximum period permitted for a joint venture in China), CGNPC 70%. TNPC will oversee the building, then own and operate the plant. EDF is paying �00 to 800 million over four years for this share, subject to approval by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) and the Ministry of Commerce. (EDF is project manager and architect for the Flamanville 3 EPR project in France, and this initiative consolidates its change in corporate strategy outside France as expressed already in the UniStar joint venture set up in mid-2007 with Constellation in USA to build, own and operate a fleet of US-EPRs in North America.)

CGNPC subsidiary China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. and Areva also set up an engineering joint venture Wecan, in December 2009. This is 55% CGNPC and 45% Areva, is based in Shenzen, and builds on Areva's European experience

CGNPC authorised construction in July 2008 and first concrete was poured on 28 October 2009, though the official inauguration ceremony was not until 21 December. Construction on the second unit started in April 2010. The first unit should be completed at the end of 2013 and the second in 2015. The major components for unit 1 are imported: the pressure vessel from Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) in Japan and the steam generators from Areva Chalon/St. Marcel in France, but those for unit 2 are all built in China: the pressure vessel by Dongfang Electric (DEC), the steam generators by DEC (two) and Shanghai Electric (two). The Arabelle steam turbines and 1750 MWe generators are being purchased separately from Alstom and Dongfang Electric Co.

Nuclear growth

In 2007, nuclear power plants provided 62.86 billion kWh � 2.3% of total � and there is now 8.6 GWe (net) installed. The first two nuclear power plants in mainland China were at Daya Bay near Hong Kong and Qinshan, south of Shanghai, with construction starting in the mid-1980s.

China's concerted nuclear expansion began with the National Development and Reform Commission's (NDRC's) Tenth Economic Plan for the years 2001-2005. (China's first economic plan was in 1953 and began China's centrally planned industrialization under Mao Zedong.) The Eleventh Economic Plan for the years 2006-2010 set even more ambitious goals than the Tenth for new nuclear plant construction, and marked a watershed in China's commitment to third-generation reactors, such as the Sanmen plant in Zhejiang province and Haiyang plant in Shandong province (see section above onReactor technology).

The Tenth Five-Year Plan (2001-05) incorporated the construction of eight nuclear reactors, though the timeline for contracts was extended, putting the last two projects into the 11th plan. The four units in the Tenth Plan were: Ling Ao Phase II (also known as Ling Dong) in Guangdong province � the first CPR-1000 plant and based on the Daya Bay and Ling Ao Phase I nuclear plants; and Qinshan Phase II, in Zhejiang province � duplicating the indigenous CNP-600 units 1&2. The following slipped to the Eleventh Plan: Sanmen in Zhejiang province, using advanced foreign technology and design; and Yangjiang in Guangdong province, 500 km west of Hong Kong, originally intended to use advanced foreign technology.

The 11th Five Year Plan (2006-10) had firmer environmental goals than previously, including reduction of 20% in the amount of energy required per unit of GDP, i.e. 4% reduction per year. As well as the Sanmen and Yangjiang projects slipped from the Tenth Plan, nuclear power developments originally proposed in the Eleventh Plan included reactors at Hongyanhe (4), Haiyang (2), Fuqing (2) and Taishan (2), all of which are now under construction. Two at Lufeng and two at Hongshiding are delayed.

In 2007, it was announced that three state-owned corporations had been approved by NNSA to own and operate nuclear power plants: CNNC, CGNPC and China Power Investment Corporation (CPI). Any other public or private companies are to have minority shares in new projects, which is proving a severe constraint on the ambitions of the country's main power utilities (including Huaneng, Huadian, Datang and Guodian), all of which have set up nuclear subsidiaries or become involved in nuclear projects. CGNPC is increasingly preeminent in actual nuclear power plants.

The 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15) includes construction start on phase II of Tianwan, Hongyanhe, Sanmen and Haiyang, as well as phase I of inland sites: Taohuajiang, Xianning, and Pengze (2 reactors each except Taohuajiang: 4). By the end of the 12th Five Year Plan some 25 GWe of new capacity is planned to be operational, making some 40 GWe, and 45 GWe more may be added by the end of the 13th Five Year Plan.

CGNPC Nuclear Projects 

More than 16 provinces, regions and municipalities have announced intentions to build nuclear power plants in the 12th Five Year Plan 2011-15. These include Henan and Sichuan, as well as those listed in the Further nuclear power units proposedTable below � most of which have preliminary project approval by the central government but are not necessarily scheduled for construction. Provinces put together firm proposals with reactor vendors by 2008 and submitted them to the central government's National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) for approval during 2009. NRDC consideration is via the new National Energy Administration (NEA). A great many proposals were received, many of which will be deferred to the 13th Plan.

In its 2007 Annual Report, CPI said that at the end of the 12th Five Year Plan it expected to have 100 GWe of controllable installed capacity including three nuclear power bases: Liaoning, Shandong and inland.7 

The complex ownership structure of Chinese nuclear plants is described in Appendix 1: Government Structure and Ownership, and China's considerable heavy engineering and manufacturing capacity is detailed in the information page onHeavy Manufacturing of Power Plants.

Operating nuclear plants

Operating nuclear reactors

 

Daya Bay, Ling Ao Phase I

The Daya Bay reactors in Guangdong province are standard 3-loop French PWR units supplied by Framatome, with GEC-Alstom turbines. Electricite de France (EDF) managed construction, starting August 1987, with the participation of Chinese engineers. Commercial operation of the two units was in February and May 1994. There were long outages in 1994-96 when Framatome had to replace major components. Reactor vessel heads were replaced in 2004. The plant produces about 13 billion kWh per year, with 70% transmitted to Hong Kong  and 30% to Guangdong.

The Ling Ao Phase I reactors are virtually replicas of adjacent Daya Bay. Construction started in May 1997 and Ling Ao 1 started up in February 2002 entering commercial operation in May. Ling Ao 2 was connected to the grid about September 2002 and entered commercial operation in January 2003. The two Ling Ao reactors use French technology supplied by Framatome, but with 30% localisation. They are reported to have cost $1800 per kilowatt.

Daya Bay and Ling Ao together comprise the 'Daya Bay nuclear power base' under the common management of Daya Bay Nuclear Power Operations & Management Co (DNMC), part of China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC). Framatome is now Areva NP. For Ling Ao Phase II, see below.

Qinshan

Qinshan 1 in Zhejiang province 100 km southwest of Shanghai, is China's first indigenously-designed and constructed nuclear power plant (though with the pressure vessel supplied by Mitsubishi, Japan). Design of the 300 MWe PWR was by the Shanghai Nuclear Engineering Research & Design Institute (SNERDI). Construction work spanned 6.5 years from March 1985, with first grid connection in December 1991. It was shut down for 14 months for major repairs from mid-1998.

In October 2007, Qinshan 1 was shut down for a major upgrade. The entire instrumentation and control system was replaced, along with the reactor pressure vessel head and control rod drives. Areva NP supervised the work, which is likely to lead to life extension beyond the original 30 years.

Qinshan Phase II units 1&2 are locally-designed and constructed 2-loop PWR reactors, scaled up from Qinshan 1, and designated CNP-600. Local content was 55%. Unit 1 started up at the end of 2001 and entered commercial operation in April 2002. Unit 2 started up in March 2004, with commercial operation in May 2004. Units 3 & 4 are similar, with local content of 77%. After 53 months construction, unit 3 was grid connected on 1 August 2010, and entered commercial operation 12 weeks later8.

In 2004, CNNC announced that the next two Qinshan units would be 1000 MWe indigenous units (i.e.CNP-1000 units, now seen as very unlikely or much delayed, and in effect Fangjiashan, adjacent to Qinshan 1, takes over this role).

Qinshan Phase III units 1&2 use the Candu 6 pressurised heavy water reactor (PHWR) technology, with Atomic Energy of Canada (AECL) being the main contractor of the project on a turnkey basis. Construction began in 1997 and unit 1 started up in September 2002 and unit 2 in April 2003. They are each about 665 MWe net.

Tianwan

Tianwan Phase I at at Lianyungang city in Jiangsu province is a Russian AES-91 power plant (with two 1060 MWe VVER reactors) constructed under a cooperation agreement between China and Russia - the largest such project ever. The cost is reported to be $3.2 billion, with China contributing $1.8 billion of this. Completion was delayed due to corrosion in the steam generators which resulted in some tubes having to be plugged with a net loss of capacity of about 2%. The first unit was grid connected in May 2006 and put into commercial operation in June 2007. The second was grid connected in May 2007, with commercial operation in August 2007. Design life is 40 years.

Nuclear plants under construction and planned

China Guangdong Nuclear Power (CGNPC) expected to spend $ 9.5 billion on its Ling Ao Phase II, Yangjiang and Taishan nuclear power plants by 2010 and to have 6000 MWe on line by then, with 12,000 MWe under construction. Work is under way at all these sites and others. It also planned to start on the Lufeng plant in Guangdong and Wuhu in Anhui province, but awaited NDRC approval. It is expecting to have 34,000 MWe nuclear capacity on line by 2020, providing 20% of the province's power, and 16,000 MWe under construction then. From 2010 it expects to commission three units per year and, from 2015, four units per year. CGNPC is also, due to State Council policy, committed to developing significant wind capacity through CGN Wind Co. It projects a total of 500 MWe by 2020.

China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group Plans to 2020 

In 2006, China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC) signed agreements in Liaoning, Hebei, Shandong and Hunan provinces and six cities in Hunan, Anhui and Guangdong provinces to develop nuclear projects. CNNC has pointed out that there is room for 30 GWe of further capacity by 2020 in coastal areas and maybe more inland such as Hunan "where conditions permit". In October 2007, CNNC's list of projects included Chuanshan (Jiangsu province), Jiyang (Anhui), Hebao Island (Guangdong), Shizu (Chongqing), Xudabao (Liaoning) and Qiaofushan (Hebei) amongst others.

CNNC said in December 2006 that it planned to build four 1000 MWe units at Heyuan, inland in northeast Guangdong, at a cost of US$ 6.4 billion, but no timing was mentioned.

In mid-2009, Huaneng Nuclear Power Development Co � a subsidiary of China Huaneng Group (CHNG) � said it had opened an office in the city of Yingtan in China's inland Jiangxi province for the development of a new nuclear power plant in the area. This is one of five sites for nuclear plants after Rongcheng which CHNG was reported in May to have selected: Cangnan in Zhejiang province, Huaining in Anhui, Xuyi in Jiangsu, and Xiapu in Fujian being the others.

In November 2007, the NDRC said that the government had budgeted CNY 450 billion ($65 billion) to build nuclear power capacity by 2020. It had selected 13 coastal sites to accommodate 59.46 GWe.

In December 2009, CGNPC is reported to have signed a CNY 5.3 billion ($776 million) nuclear island installation contract with China Nuclear Power Engineering Group Co (CNPEC), apparently covering Ningde 3&4 in Fujian, Yangjiang 3&4 in Guangdong, Fangchenggang 1&2 in Guangxi, and Taishan 1&2 in Guangdong. This is the largest contract of its kind in China.

Nuclear reactors under construction and planned

Plant

Province

MWe gross

Reactor model

Project control

Construction start

Operation

Ling Ao Phase II
unit 2

Guangdong

1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

5/06 

8/11

Qinshan Phase II
unit 4

Zhejiang

650

CNP-600

CNNC

1/07 

2012

Hongyanhe
units 1-4

Liaoning

4x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

8/07, 4/08, 3/09,8/09 

10/12, 2013, 2014

Ningde
units 1-4

Fujian

4x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC, with Datang

2/08, 11/08, 1/10,9/10 

12/12, 2013, 2014, 2015

Fuqing
units 1&2

Fujian

2x1080

CPR-1000

CNNC

11/08, 6/09 

10/13, 8/14

Yangjiang
units 1-4

Guangdong

4x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

12/08, 8/09, 11/10, 15/3/11

8/13, 2014, 2015, 2016

Fangjiashan
units 1&2

Zhejiang

2x1080

CPR-1000

CNNC

12/08, 7/09 

12/13, 10/14

Sanmen
units 1&2

Zhejiang

2x1250

AP1000

CNNC

3/09, 12/09 

11/13, 9/14

Haiyang
units 1&2

Shandong

2x1250

AP1000

CPI

9/09, 6/10 

5/14, 3/15

Taishan
units 1&2

Guangdong

2x1770

EPR

CGNPC

10/09, 4/10 

12/13, 11/14

Hongyanhe
units 5&6

Liaoning

2x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

2011, 2011

2015

Shandong Shidaowan

Shandong

210

HTR-PM

Huaneng

4/11 but deferred

2015

Fangchenggang
units 1&2

Guangxi

2x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

7/10, 2011

2015, 2016

Fuqing
units 3&4

Fujian

4x1080

CPR-1000

CNNC

7/10, 2011

7/15, 5/16

Fuqing
units 5&6

Fujian

2x1080

CPR-1000
or CNP1000

CNNC

?, ?

-

Changjiang
units 1&2

Hainan

2x650

CNP-600

CNNC & Huaneng

4/10, 11/10 

2014, 2015

Hongshiding (Rushan)
units 1&2

Shandong

2x1080

CPR-1000

CNEC/CNNC

Deferred from 2009?

2015

Ningde
units 5&6

Fujian

2x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

 

 

Xianning (Dafan)
units 1&2

Hubei

2x1250

AP1000

CGNPC

2011 or 2015

2015?

Taohuajiang
units 1-4

Hunan

4x1250

AP1000

CNNC

2011 or 2015

4/2015-2018?

Pengze
units 1&2

Jiangxi

2x1250

AP1000

CPI

2011 or 2015

2015?

Xudabao / Xudapu
units 1&2

Liaoning

2x1250

AP1000

CNNC with Datang

9/11, ?

 

Sanmen
units 3&4

Zhejiang

2x1250

AP1000

CNNC

 

 

Haiyang
units 3&4

Shandong

2x1250

AP1000

CPI

2010?

 

Xiaomoshan
units 1&2

Hunan

2x1250

AP1000

CPI

2011?

 

Longyou (Zhexi)
units 1&2

Zhejiang

2x1250

AP1000

CNNC

2011?

 

Sanming 
units 1&2

Fujian

2x880

BN-800

CNNC

8/2011

2018, 19

Zhangzhou
units 1&2

Fujian

2x1250

AP1000

CNNC & Guodian

2011

 

Yanjiashan/Wanan/Ji'an

Jiangxi

2x1250

AP1000

CNNC

2011?

 

Shaoguan
units 1-4

Guangdong (inland)

4x1250

AP1000

CGNPC

2013

 

Tianwan
units 3&4

Jiangsu

2x1060

VVER-1000
(AES-91)

CNNC

12/12, 8/13

 

Tianwan
units 5&6

Jiangsu

2x1200

VVER-1200 or CPR-1000

CNNC

?, ?

 

Wuhu
units 1&2

Anhui

2x1250

AP1000

CGNPC

12/2011

8/2016

Lianyungang
units 1&2

Jiangsu

2x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

 

 

Shanwei (Lufeng)
units 1&2

Guangdong

2x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

by 2015?

 

 

 

33x1080
32x1250
2x1060
2x1200
2x1770
2x880
3x650
1x210

 

Total: 77

 

87,620 MWe 

 

Where construction has started, the dates are marked in bold. Those here not under construction are marked as 'planned' in the WNA reactor table. At 31 December 2010, 27 under construction: 29,790 MWe; 50 planned: 57,830 MWe (gross).
Fangjiashan is sometimes shown as a development of Qinshan Phase I. 

Further nuclear power units proposed 

Plant

Province

MWe gross

Expected model

Project control

Construction

Start up

Lianyungang
units 3&4

Jiangsu

2x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

 

 

Taishan
units 3&4

Guangdong

2x1770

EPR

CGNPC

by 2015

 

Nanchong (Nanchun, Sanba)

Sichuan

4x1080

CPR-1000?

CGNPC

 

 

Tianwan
units 7&8

Jiangsu

2x1200

VVER-1200
(AES-2006)

CNNC

 

 

Yangjiang
units 5&6

Guangdong

2x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

 

2017

Xianning (Dafan)
units 3&4

Hubei

2x1250

AP1000

CGNPC

 

 

Shidaowan
units 1-4

Shandong

4x1250

AP1000

Huaneng

2013?

 

Shidaowan
units 5&6

Shandong

2x1400

CAP1400

Huaneng

2013?

 

Shandong Shidaowan

Shandong

18x210

HTR-PM

Huaneng

 

 

Changjiang
units 3 & 4

Hainan

2x650

CNP-600 or
ACP-600

CNNC & Huaneng

 

 

Haiyang
units 5&6

Shandong

2x1250

AP1000

CPI

 

 

Xiaomoshan
units 3-6

Hunan

4x1250

AP1000

CPI

 

 

Xudabao / Xudapu
units 3-6

Liaoning

4x1250

AP1000

CNNC with Datang

 

 

Shanwei (Lufeng)
units 3-6

Guangdong

4x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

 

 

Fangchenggang
units 3-6

Guangxi

4x1080

CPR-1000

CGNPC

 

 

Yingtan

Jiangxi

2?

 

Huaneng

 

 

Nanyang
units 1-6

Henan

6x1250?

AP1000 (if CPI)

CNNC or CPI

 

 

Xinyang
units 1-4

Henan

4x1080

CPR-1000?

CGNPC?

 

 

Changde (Chenzhou, Hengyang)

Hunan

4x1000?

 

CNNC & Guodian?, CGNPC

 

 

Subtotal: 74 units

 

68,000+ MWe 

 

 

 

Jiyang

Anhui

4x?

 

CNNC

 

 

Sanmen
units 5&6

Zhejiang

2x1250

AP1000

CNNC

 

 

Cangnan

Zheijiang

6x1000

 

CGNPC/Huaneng

 

 

Zhexi /Longyou 
units 3&4

Zhejiang

2x1250

AP1000

CNNC

 

 

Haijia /Haifeng
units 1&2

Guangdong

2x1000?

 

CGNPC

 

 

Jinzhouwan
units 1&2

Liaoning

2x1000

 

 

 

 

Fuling
units 1-4

Chongqing

4x1250

AP1000

CPI

 

 

Jingyu
units 1-4

Jilin

4x1250

AP1000

CPI & Guodian

2013?

 

Wuhu
units 3-4

Anhui

2x1250

AP1000

CGNPC

 

 

Pengze
units 3&4

Jiangxi

2x1100

AP1000

CPI

 

 

Heyuan /Jieyang
units 1-4

Guangdong

4x1000

 

CNNC?

 

 

Haiyang
units 7&8

Shandong

2x1250

AP1000

CPI

 

 

Pingnan/Baisha
units 1-4

Guangxi

4x1250

AP1000

CPI

 

 

Hengren
units 1-4

Liaoning

4x1250

AP1000

CPI

 

 

Lanzhou

Gansu

2?

 

CNNC

 

 

Xiangtan

Hunan

4x1250

AP1000

Huadian

 

 

Donggang

Liaoning

4x1000

 

Huadian

 

 

Shizu

Chongqing

 

 

CNNC

 

 

Qiaofushan

Hebai

 

 

CNNC

 

 

Songzi/Xianning 5&6

Hubei

 

AP1000

CGNPC

 

 

Guangshui

Hubei

4x1250

AP1000

CGNPC

 

 

Hebaodao

Guangdong

 

 

CNNC

 

 

Yibin

Sichuan

 

 

CNNC

 

 

Sanming 3&4

Fujian

2x880?

BN-800?

CNNC

2015

 

Site to be decided 

Heilongjiang

4x1000

 

Huaneng

 

 

Subtotal: about 72 units

 

32x1250
20x1000
2x880
c.18x210
Approx. 80,000 MWe 

 

 

 

Total: about 140

 

138,000+ MWe 

 

All PWR except Shidaowan HTR-PM and Sanming BN-800. Some of these entries are based on sketchy information. For WNA reactor table, 80% of numbers and capacity from this table are listed as 'Proposed' 

Ling Ao Phase II

While the bidding process for the delayed Generation III plants from overseas vendors was in train over more than two years (see section above on Embarking upon Generation III plants), the Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC) signed contracts with Chinese designers and manufacturers for two CPR-1000 reactors as Phase II of the Ling Ao power station (also known as Ling Dong). Construction started in December 2005 with the 1080 MWe (gross), 1037 MWe (net) units. Unit 1 is about 50% localized and unit 2 will be 70% localized, under the project management of China Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (CNPEC), part of CGNPC. Low-speed Arabelle turbine-generator sets are being provided by Alstom. In June 2009, the first Chinese-made reactor pressure vessel for a 1000 MWe class reactor was delivered for unit 2, from Dongfang (Guangzhou) Heavy Machinery Co. Unit 1 started up in June 2010 with grid connection in mid-July, 54 months after construction start, and entered commercial operation in September. Unit 2 is expected to commence operation in 2011.

Qinshan Phase II-3&4

Construction of the second stage of Qinshan Phase II was formally inaugurated at the end of April 2006, though first concrete had been poured for unit 3 in March. That for unit 4 was poured in January 2007. Local content of the two 650 MWe CNP-600 reactors will be more than 70% and scheduled construction time is 60 months.

Hongyanhe

This is the first nuclear power station receiving central government approval to build four units at the same time, and the first in northeast China. Construction of the first unit of the Hongyanhe nuclear power plant in Dalian, Liaoning, started in August 2007. It is the first nuclear power project in the 11th Five-Year Plan, with owner and operator being Liaoning Hongyanhe Nuclear Power Co, a joint venture of CGNPC and CPI (45% each) with Dalian Construction Investment Group. The National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) issued a construction licence for units 3 & 4 in March 2009, and first concrete for unit 3 was poured soon afterwards. The cost of all four 1080 MWe CPR-1000 units in the first construction phase is put at CNY 50 billion (US$ 6.6 billion). China Nuclear Power Engineering Corporation (CNPEC), part of CGNPC, is managing the project. Shanghai Electric won a $260 million contract for equipment and Alstom is to provide the four low-speed Arabelle turbine-generator sets for $184 million. Localisation is above 70%. Commercial operation is planned for 2012-14. The project incorporates a 10,080 m3/day desalination plant.

In May 2010, the NRDC approved preliminary work on the CNY 25 billion two-unit second phase of the plant (units 5&6), and work began in July. The National Nuclear Safety Administration (NNSA) and the Environment Ministry approved the project in September 2010, construction start is expected 2011. Localisation is to be above 80% and the first unit is expected on line in 2015.

Ningde

Construction of CGNPC's six-unit Ningde nuclear power plant commenced in 2008. This is on three islands in Fuding city in northeast of Fujian province, and the first construction phase comprises four CPR-1000 units. The project was approved by the National Development & Reform Commission (NDRC) in September 2006, and local content will be about 75% for units 1&2 and 85% for units 3&4. Construction of the first unit started in February 2008, and CGNPC expects commercial operation of it after 58 months, in December 2012, with the others following to 2015. First concrete for the second unit was in November 2008, for the third early in January 2010 and for the fourth at the end of September 2010. Total cost for four units was put at CNY 51 billion ($7.2 billion). Dongfang Electric has a contract to supply turbine generators for units 1-4, using Alstom Arabelle low-speed technology. No dates yet known for units 5 & 6.

Fuqing

Construction of the six-unit Fuqing nuclear power plant 170 km south of Ningde also commenced in 2008 at Qianxe, Fuqing city in Fujian, near Fuzhou. The Fujian Fuqing Nuclear Co Ltd was set up in May 2006 with 49% held by China Huadian Corp. CNNC is responsible for the project which is using CGNPC's CPR-1000 reactors since alternatives are not licensed. First concrete for unit 1 was poured in November 2008, for unit 2 in June 2009, and for unit 3 in December 2010. Commercial operation is expected over 2013 to 2016. Site works are under way for further units there, total expected cost for all six being CNY 100 billion ($14.6 billion).

Construction of the project is by China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. (CNPE) and the reactor pressure vessels will be supplied by China First Heavy Industries, as for Fangjiashan. In June 2008, Dongfang Electric Group announced a CNY 5 billion ($725 million) contract for Alstom Arabelle low-speed steam turbine generators for the Fuqing and Fangjiashan plants. Late in 2010, CNNC was proposing the CNP1000 for units 5 & 6, noting "pre-project under way".

Yangjiang

Yangjiang city in western Guangdong province had originally been earmarked for the country's first Generation III plants (see section above on Embarking upon Generation III plants). After plans changed in the light of pressing generation needs in the region, Yangjiang will be the second nuclear power base of the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC). Development of all six units of the Yangjiang plant was approved in 2004, with CPR-1000 later confirmed as technology for it. Construction of the first of two units started in December 2008, for commercial operation in 2013. Construction on the first unit of the second pair started in November 2010, then the final two (as the second construction phase) are to follow, with the last being built by 2017. Total cost is put at CNY 70 billion ($10.1 billion).

Yangjiang 1-6 and a further 14 units, along with the six units at Daya Bay/Ling Ao, will be operated under regional Daya Bay (DNMC) management. In July 2010, Hong Kong-based power utility China Light and Power (CLP) agreed to take a 17% stake in Yangjiang � the equivalent of one reactor.

Fangjiashan

Construction of CNNC's Fangjiashan plant started at the end of December 2008. It is close to the Qinshan plant in Zhejiang province and essentially an extension of it, using two CPR-1000 reactors. Construction of the CNY 26 billion ($3.8 billion) project is by China Nuclear Power Engineering Co. (CNPE) and the reactor pressure vessels will be supplied by China First Heavy Industries, as for Fuqing. In June 2008, Dongfang Electric Group announced a CNY 5 billion ($725 million) contract for Alstom Arabelle low-speed steam turbine generators for the Fuqing and Fangjiashan plants.

Sanmen

At the end of 2006, the Westinghouse AP1000 reactor design was selected for Sanmen in Zhejiang province (and for Yangjiang in Guangdong province, with the latter site changed to Haiyang). Contracts with Westinghouse and Shaw for two units were signed in July 2007. Site works under CNNC commenced in February 2008 and an engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) contract was signed in March 2009 between SNPTC + CNNC and China Nuclear Engineering & Construction Group (CNEC) for both units, which will be overseen by Westinghouse and Shaw. Other stakeholders are Zhejiang Provincial Energy Group Co Ltd, CPI Nuclear Power Co Ltd, and China Huadian Corp. Construction on Sanmen 1 � the world's first AP1000 unit � officially commenced on 19 April 2009. The reactor is expected to begin operation in August 2013 with unit 2 about one year later. Construction on unit 2 commenced in mid-December 2009. The pressure vessel and steam generators for unit 2 are being made in China. See section on Embarking upon Generation III plants above.

Haiyang

Shangdong Nuclear Power Company (a subsidiary of CPI) signed contracts with Westinghouse and Shaw for two AP1000 units in July 2007. Work on the site is well underway and first concrete was poured in September 2009 for unit 1 and June 2010 for unit 2. The 5000 cubic metre base mat of each was placed in a single pouring of less than 48 hours. The pressure vessel and steam generators for unit 2 are being made in China. These units are expected to commence operation in May 2014 and March 2015. See section on Embarking upon Generation III plants above.

The site will eventually have six or eight units, and in March 2009, the NDRC approved preliminary works for units 3 and 4 at the CPI site, to be AP1000 units. Construction was expected to start late in 2010.

Haiyang will be a CPI training base for AP1000 staff, along with a set-up at Yantai.

Taishan

The first two EPRs planned for Taishan in Guangdong province form part of an � billion contract signed by Areva and the Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC) in November 2007. The Taishan project (sometimes referred to as Yaogu) is owned by the Guangdong Taishan Nuclear Power Joint Venture Company Limited (TNPC), a joint venture between EDF (30%) and CGNPC. First concrete was poured in October 2009, and unit 1 should be commissioned early in 2014, with unit 2 in 2015. Areva is fabricating major components for both units and expects net capacity to be 1660 MWe each. See section onEmbarking upon Generation III plants above.

Site works are reported to be proceeding for units 3 & 4, and construction is expected to start before 2015.

Shidaowan HTR-PM 

A demonstration high-temperature gas-cooled reactor plant, with twin reactor modules driving a single 210 MWe steam turbine, was initially approved in November 2005, to be built at Shidaowan in Weihai city, Shandong province, by Huaneng Shidaowan Nuclear Power Company Ltd (HSNPC). It will be part of the Rongcheng Nuclear Power Industrial Park project. The HSNPC joint venture is led by the China Huaneng Group Co � the country's largest generating utility but hitherto without nuclear capacity, and still without NNSA authority to build nuclear plants. Huaneng Power International is investing CNY 5 billion in the project, which received environmental clearance in March 2008. Site work is largely complete, but no NNSA licence has been issued. Subject to this, Huaneng wants to commence construction as soon as possible, for commercial operation in 2015. The latest (unconfirmed) reports suggest that NDRC approval has been given for construction start at the end of March 2011. The EPC (engineering, procurement, construction) contract was let in October 2008, and involves Shanghai Electric Co and Harbin Power Equipment Co. A simulator contract signed in May 2010 was between HSNPC, Chinergy and CGNPC Simulator Co.  After three years of negotiation, in March 2011 a contract was signed with SGL Group in Germany for supply of 500,000 machined graphite spheres for HTR-PM fuel by the end of 2013. In November 2010 Huaneng Group signed an agreement with US-based Duke Energy to train nuclear plant staff.

This will be the demonstration plant for a further 18 modules at the site, total 3,800 MWe. (See also Research and development section in page on China's Nuclear Fuel Cycle.)

Shidaowan (PWRs)

In November 2007, China Huaneng Group (CHNG) signed an agreement with CGNPC for the Huaneng Nuclear Power Development Company to build four CPR-1000 reactors at Shidaowan, Rongcheng city, in Shandong province in an $8 billion deal. A letter of intent regarding the first two was signed in 2008. However, this has now become another AP1000 project and National Development and Reform Commission approval is being sought.

In October 2009, the Shidaowan Nuclear Power Development Limited Company was set up with capital contribution 40% CHNG, 30% Huaneng International Power Development Corp. (HIPDC) and 30% Huaneng Power International (HPI) � both being CHNG subsidiaries. Thus none of the authorised nuclear utilities is now involved, though Huaneng is linked with SNPTC on the project through the State Nuclear Demonstration Company � a 55-45% joint venture company by SNPTC and CHNG in respect to building the first CAP1400 units (see Reactor technology section above), two being envisaged after the four AP1000s.

Fangchenggang

The Fangchenggang Nuclear Power Project is located at Hongsha village, in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone near Bailong in the coastal city of Fangchenggang in the Guangxi Autonomous Region (45 km from the Vietnam border in south China). Following an agreement in July 2006, the first stage (two 1080 MWe CPR-1000 units out of six planned) of the plant was approved by NDRC in October 2008, and again in July 2010. First concrete was poured in July 2010, and about 87% of the first two units will be sourced in China.

In October 2009, a general construction contract was signed with CNPEC. Guangxi Fangchenggang Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., a joint venture between China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (61%) and Guangxi Investment Group (39%), is responsible for the construction and operation. The first unit is expected to begin commercial operation in 2015, the second in 2016. Total budget is CNY 70 billion ($10.26 billion), with CNY 26 billion ($3.87 billion) for stage 1. (There is also a Fangchenggang supercritical 2400 MWe coal-fired power station operated by CLP Guangxi Fangchenggang Power Company Limited, a 70:30 equity-basis joint venture between China Light & Power and Guangxi Water & Power Engineering (Group) Co., Ltd.)

Tianwan Phases II & III

In October 2006, a preliminary agreement for two further 1060 MWe AES-91 reactors as the second construction phase at Tianwan in Lianyungang city of Jiangsu province was signed with Russia's Atomstroyexport. Construction of units 3 & 4 was to start when both the first two units were commissioned, and hence in November 2007 a further agreement was signed by CNNC. Preliminary approval from NDRC was received in August 2009, and the project is expected to cost $3.8 billion. Protracted discussion on pricing for the Russian components of the plant delayed the project. Eventually, a contract for the engineering design of Tianwan 3 & 4 was signed in September 2010 between Jiangsu Nuclear Power Corporation and Atomstroyexport, and the general construction contract was signed in November 2010. Final approval from NDRC was received in January 2011, and first concrete was scheduled for December 2012 and August 2013.

�.3 billion was agreed for Atomstroyexport to provide 30% of the plant including nuclear island equipment (reactor, steam generator, pressurisers, primary piping. etc.) and some related equipment. It will not act as the principal contractor, though it insists on retaining intellectual property rights. Jiangsu Nuclear Power Corporation is responsible for about 70% of the project, namely, the civil work, turbine island with equipment and related infrastructure on the site. The turbine generator sets will probably be sourced from Dongfang Electric, using Alstom Arabelle low-speed technology.

Meanwhile, Iskorskiye Zavody, part of OMZ, has started making the major components covered by the Russian �.3 billion part of the plant. It will manufacture two VVER-1000 reactor pressure vessels with internals and upper units. Delivery should be completed in 2014. The company already took part in making the major equipment for Tianwan 1 & 2, including reactor pressure vessels.

In August 2009, the Assets Supervision & Administration Commission announced that Phase 3 of Tianwan (units 5 & 6) would start construction in October 2010 � now delayed. These are likely to be AES-2006 type, though some reports have them as CPR-1000.  Dongfang Electric has a contract to supply turbine generators using Alstom Arabelle low-speed technology. CNNC reported an EPC contract between Jiangsu and CNPE in February 2011, making CNPE the project manager.

Hongshiding (Rushan)

In November 2006, an agreement was signed by CNNC to proceed with the first two units of the Hongshiding nuclear plant at Hongshiding in Weihai or Rushan city, Shandong province, costing $ 3.2 billion, with construction to begin in 2009 and first power in 2015. However, it appears to have been deferred. Six units totaling 6000-8000 MWe are envisaged at the site, with Shandong Hongshiding Nuclear Power Co. Ltd as developer.

Changjiang

CNNC's Changjiang nuclear power plant on Hainan Island started construction in April 2010 for operation of the first unit at the end of 2014 and the second in 2015. It will eventually comprise four 650 MWe PWR units (CNP-600) based on those at Qinshan Phase II. Total cost of the first pair is put at about CNY 20 billion ($2.8 billion). Units 3 & 4 will be built as the second phase of construction. Huaneng Power International (HPI), part of China Huaneng Group (CHNG), holds a 30% share in Hainan Nuclear Power Co Ltd. More than 70% of the plant's equipment is to be made in China.

Sanming 

In October 2009, an agreement was signed by CIAE and CNEIC (a CNNC subsidiary responsible for technology imports) with Russia's Atomstroyexport to start pre-project and design works for a commercial nuclear power plant with two BN-800 fast neutron reactors (referred to as Chinese Demonstration Fast Reactors) at Sanming city, an inland part of Fujian province. A site survey and preliminary feasibility study had been undertaken in 2007-08. CNNC in April 2010 established Sanming Nuclear Power Co Ltd as a joint venture company with the Fujian Investment & Development Corp and local government, and initiated a full feasibility study. Construction is due to start in 2013, the local content is targeted at 70%, and the first unit is to be in operation in 2018, and the second following about a year later. A second phase, with units 3 & 4, is due to commence in 2015. The plant will be similar to the OKBM Afrikantov design being built in Russia at Beloyarsk 4 and due to start up in 2012.

Xudabao/Xudabu

CNNC's Xudabao nuclear power station is in Xingcheng City, Huludao, in coastal Liaoning province. The CNY 90 billion (US$15 billion) Xudabao project will comprise six AP1000 reactors, with units 1&2 in the US$4 billion first phase. Site preparation was under way in November 2010, and final NDRC approval in January 2011 will allow construction start in September 2011. CNNC's Liaoning Nuclear Power Company Ltd owns the plant, with Datang International Power Generation Co holding 20% equity, and State Development and Investment Corporation (SDIC) 10%. The general contractor is China Nuclear Power Engineering Company Ltd (CNPE). In October 2010, the Northeast Electric Power Design Institute (NEPDI), Changchun, Jilin, a subsidiary of China Power Engineering Consulting Corporation (CPECC), signed a survey and engineering contract for the plant.

Lianyungang

CGNPC's Lianyungang nuclear power project is planned to have four units of 1000 MWe class to be constructed in phases. This is in Xinxu town, Lianyun district, Lianyungang city, Jiangsu province close to CNNC's Tianwan plant and involving the Jiangsu Nuclear Power Company. A proposal has been submitted to the NRDC and preparations for the project are proceeding, but prospects in the 12th Five Year Plan are uncertain.

Shanwei (Lufeng)

CGNPC's Lufeng Nuclear Power Corporation is making efforts to start on the first two units (of 6) of the Shanwei plant at Lufeng, Tianwei district in eastern Guangdong, but awaits NDRC approval. It will be a CNPEC project.  It is in the 12th 5-year plan, so construction start by 2015 is likely.

Zhangzhou

China Guodian's first nuclear power venture, with CNNC holding 51%, will initially have two AP1000 reactors, on the coast in Fujian province.

Inland nuclear power plants

Xianning

In August 2008, CGNPC and Hubei Energy Group Ltd set up the Hubei Nuclear Power Company as a joint venture and announced plans to build a nuclear power plant in Xianning city of the inland Hubei province. Site works for this plant (four AP1000 units) at Dafan are under way. Construction of the first two units was expected to start in 2011, but may be delayed to 2015. The reactor pressure vessel for the first unit is contracted to China First Heavy Industries, and the first two 209 metre high cooling towers to Belgium's Hamon Thermal. The cost of four AP1000 reactors is put at CNY 60 billion ($8.8 billion). This will be CGNPC's first AP1000 plant. A further phase is estimated to cost CNY 45 billion.

The large pre-assembled modules that will make up the bulk of the new AP1000s are to come from a new inland facility owned by new firm Hubei Nuclear Power Equipment Company.

Reports of a Songzi plant may refer to later stages of Dafan, though possible projects in Yangxin county have been mentioned.

The Hubei Nuclear Power Co is also reported to be planning a four-unit AP1000 plant at Guangshui city in the northeast of the province.

Pengze

CPI's Jiangxi Pengze Nuclear Power Project in Jiangxi province is to have four AP1000 reactors costing CNY 60 billion ($8.8 billion). The site has been prepared for the first two units, and safety and environmental approvals were obtained in May 2009. CPI signed the EPC contract framework for phase 1 (units 1 & 2) in August 2009, the engineering project contract was reported to be between CPI Jiangxi Nuclear Power and CPIC. The equipment procurement was reported to be between CPIC and China Power Complete Equipment. CPI aimed to start construction in 2010, for 2013 start-up, but construction may be delayed to 2015. The project is inland in Juijiang city, on the Yangtze River. The cooling towers are being designed by Belgium's Hamon Thermal for the State Nuclear Electric Power Planning Design and Research Institute (SNPDRI).

Taohuajiang

CNNC's Taohuajiang nuclear power plant on the Zi River in Yiyang city, near Yueyang in inland Hunan province will be China's first inland nuclear power plant. It was expected to start construction in September 2010, and site works are under way, but construction may be delayed to 2015. (It is also referred to as the Taohua [peach blossom] River project.) CNNC set up Hunan Taohuajiang Nuclear Power Co Ltd. to build and operate the plant. Initially this was to be 4 x 1000 MWe at a total cost of CNY 34 billion, but it will now be a four-unit AP1000 project costing CNY 67 billion. The main contractor is China Nuclear Industry 23rd Construction Co Ltd; China Erzhong is contracted to supply the main pressure vessel forgings, and Dongfang Electric Corp will supply other major components. Germany's GEA Group is to construct the cooling tower for unit 1: a natural draft unit some 200 metres high and 160 m in diameter, with 15,000 square metres drenching area. Subsequent towers will have increasing local content.

It was approved by the NDRC in November 2005, and in 2008 the project was approved for preliminary construction. The design by SNERDI under SNPTC and SNPDRI was submitted to the NNSA in February 2010 for licensing. A general framework agreement for construction was signed by CNNC with CNPE Corporation as EPC contractor in December 2010. The first unit was originally expected in commercial operation in April 2015, and the fourth in 2018.

Xiaomoshan

The Xiaomoshan nuclear power plant on the Yangtze River in Huarong county, Yueyang city, Hunan province (inland), is a priority project for CPI. It will eventually have six AP1000 reactors and be built by Hunan Nuclear Power Company Ltd in two phases. NDRC approval was given in 2006 but as of mid-2010 NNSA approval was awaited. Site preparation is underway and first concrete was expected late in 2010. The cost is put at CNY 70 billion ($10.25 billion) for the first four units, funded by SNPTC and Wuling Electric Power Development Co. (a CPI subsidiary). The Heimifeng pumped storage plant will be associated with it.

Yanjiashan/Wanan/Ji'an

In August 2009, CNNC (51%) signed a joint venture agreement with Jiangxi Ganneng Co. Ltd and Jiangxi Ganyue Expressway Co Ltd (49% between them) setting up Jiangxi Nuclear Power Co to build the Wanan Yanjiashan nuclear power project at Ji'an in the Jiangxi province. CNNC contracted a feasibility study of Yanjiashan nuclear power program in July 2010. Pre-project work was reported as under way in November 2010. (This is also reported as a CPI project.)

Hengyang

Also in August 2009, CNNC signed an agreement with Hengyang city in Hunan province to build a nuclear power plant there or nearby. This is about 200km south of its Taohuajiang project at Yiyang city in Hunan. China Guodian Corporation, one of the country's largest power producers, is involved in the project though it has no nuclear capacity so far.

 

Zhongxiang

CNNC's Hubei Zhongxiang nuclear power project is at Zhongxiang city in central Hubei, with China Datang. The 5000 MWe plant is undergoing a detailed feasibility study, but further details are unknown.

 

Wuhu

The Wuhu nuclear plant on the Yangtze River in the Bamaoshan area, Fanchang county, of Anhui province was planned to have four 1000 MWe CPR-1000 units, but is now designated for AP1000s to be constructed in two phases. CGNPC's proposal for two units of phase 1 has been submitted, some preparatory work is under way and the Anhui Wuhu Nuclear Power Co has been set up, with 51% CGNPC ownership. The environmental impact statement was released for public comment in January 2010. The first unit is due on line in 2016.

Jiyang

Besides Wuhu, CNNC was reported as starting a feasibility study on another four-unit nuclear plant in the Anhui province, at Jiyang in Chizhou city, in December 2008.

 

 

Nanchun/Nanchong/Sanba, Yibin

In 2005, Sichuan proposed Nanchun/ Nanchong city east of Chengdu as a suitable site for a nuclear power plant and sought approval for it from the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), which was not given, possibly because of seismic concerns. In March 2009, the provincial government signed an agreement with CGNPC to pursue the plan for a Nanchun nuclear power plant, involving the Nuclear Power Institute of China (NPIC), headquartered in Chendu. Preliminary plans in 2008 were for a 4000-6000 MWe Sanba nuclear power plant on the Jialing River, at a cost of CNY 25 billion ($3.7 billion). Majority ownership would be CGNPC.

Another Sichuan agreement for a nuclear power plant project has been signed between CNNC and Yibin city, south of Chengdu.

Shaoguan

CGNPC's Shaoguan nuclear plant will comprise four AP1000 reactors and is expected to cost RMB 50 billion. It will be located in Baitu Town of Qujiang District in Shaoguan City, and will be the first inland nuclear power project in Guangdong. The Shaoguan Nuclear Power Co was established in April 2010.

Xiangtan

In December 2009, China Huadian Corp signed an agreement with Xiangtan city government in Hunan to undertake studies for a CNY 60 billion power plant comprising four 1250 MWe reactors. A refined proposal was expected in September 2010. This will apparently be the fourth nuclear project for China Huadian.

Longyou/ Zhexi

In October 2008 a project proposal was submitted to NDRC by CNNC and Zhejiang Energy Group Co Ltd for a western Zhejiang nuclear power plant in Hangzhou with four AP1000 reactors, though earlier reports had four 1000 MWe units to be built in two phases from late 2010. The proposed site is Tuanshi, Longyou county. Pre-project work was reported as under way in November 2010.

Jingyu

CPI plans to spend CNY 85 billion to build the six-unit Jingyu nuclear power plant near Baishan, in Jilin province, with four AP1000 units to be in stage 1. The project is still in the preliminary feasibility stage, though site preperation is now underway.

Nanyang

To be a six-unit CNNC plant in Henan province. Pre-project work was reported as under way in November 2010.

 

Further Information

Notes

a. According to the China Electricity Council, electricity consumption in 2010 increased 14.6% to 4190 billion kWh, corresponding with a 10% growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Some 3090 billion kWh of this was in industry. China's energy consumption per unit of GDP met a target reduction of 20% from 2005 levels by the end of 2010, according to the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). The energy intensity targets for the following five years are expected to be about 17%. [Back]

b. The CNP series of reactors is also referred to as the CP series. [Back]

c. The ACP600 design appears to be an advanced version of the CNP-600. CNNC expects to complete development of the ACP600 design by 2013. [Back]

References

1. Cost of Pollution in China: Economic Estimates of Physical Damages, The World Bank, State Environmental Protection Administration, P. R. China (February 2007) [Back]

2. Platts Power in Asia, 21 January 2010; China's electricity consumption jumps 14.56% in 2010, Xinhua News Agency (17 January 2011) [Back]

3. International Energy Outlook 2009, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, DOE/EIA-0484(2009), available at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html [Back]

4. Maintain nuclear perspective, China told, World Nuclear News (11 January 2011) [Back]

5. APWR and HTR are listed into the national program, CNNC news release (24 February 2006) [Back]

6. Criticality for fast reactor World Nuclear News (22 July 2010) [Back]

7. 2007 Annual Report of China Power Investment Corporation (26 November 2008) [Back]

8. Unit 3 at Qinshan Phase II Nuclear Power Station begins operation People's Daily Online (22 October 2010) [Back]

General sources

China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group website (www.cgnpc.com.cn)

China National Nuclear Corporation website (www.cnnc.com.cn)

Country Analysis Briefs: China, Energy Information Administration, U.S. Department of Energy, available athttp://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/index.html 

Uranium 2007: Resources, Production and Demand, OECD Nuclear Energy Agency and International Atomic Energy Agency, 2008 (ISBN: 9789264047662)

Nicobar Group website (www.nicobargroup.com)

Dynabond PowerTech website (www.dynabondpowertech.com)

Proceedings of the World Nuclear Association's China International Nuclear Symposium, held in Beijing on 23-25 November 2010.